International student demand is not collapsing; it is being rerouted.
Research points to millions more students desiring to pursue cross-border education each year, potentially reaching 9 million by 2030 (up from around 7 million today). Underneath this reassuringly ascending top line, we see significant changes in student pathways. These are influenced by government policies—especially the availability of visas and post-study work rights—political sentiment and rhetoric about immigration, and the twin concerns of Return on Investment (ROI) and affordability. Regional “closer-to-home” options, multi-versity, and hybrid routes are winning a growing share of students from the traditional offerings of the “Big Four.”
So, we are not debating whether demand exists. We are interested in discussing who is likely to benefit in this evolving marketplace and how incumbent players can attract students by providing the support, academic offerings, and experience they desire.
This view is supported by Cairneagle’s April 2026 transnational education report, which finds that while demand continues to grow, more students are choosing domestic or regional options over traditional cross-border study. Tightening visa policies, rising costs and uncertain post-study outcomes are accelerating this shift, while emerging hubs such as the UAE and Singapore are attracting increasing numbers of students.
The report also highlights the rise of transnational education (TNE), with universities expanding through branch campuses, partnerships and hybrid delivery models to reach students in-market. This is shifting competitive advantage from recruitment alone to the ability to deliver flexible, locally relevant education.
Come to our panel at ASU-GSV 2026 to hear the debate on this key topic.
Author: Fionnuala Duggan, Partner
