Following the publishing last year of the results of the former government’s SEND review and now with the start of a new Labour government, it would be fair to ask whether we’re entering a period of change for Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) provision in the UK. Here we take a look at the latest data on Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) and the content of Labour’s election manifesto to demonstrate why, at least in the short term, we believe it’s looking like more of the same for the EHCP-driven part of the SEND sector; a positive for providers of publicly-funded independent SEND provision and their investors. Of course, the SEND space is much more than EHCPs – around 75% of school children diagnosed with SEND do not have EHCPs – and the future is less certain in other parts of the sector.
How fast have EHCP numbers been growing?
Following the recent publishing of data for the latest academic year (AY), we can see that the rapid growth in the number of pupils holding an EHCP has accelerated. In AY24 there were c. 434k pupils holding an EHCP across all schools in England, with the growth of over 11% from c. 389k in AY23 exceeding the previous year’s growth of c. 9% from c. 356k in AY22.
This has occurred despite the goals of the former government’s Safety Valve (SV) and Delivering Better Value (DBV) programmes which were launched with the aim of reducing the deficits of the local authorities (LAs) with the highest overspend against their high needs block budgets. As an example, the DBV programme has an indicative target of achieving at least a 20% reduction in new EHCPs issued by the LAs taking part in the programme.
A further target of the DBV programme is to achieve a 20% reduction in placements of EHCP pupils in independent schools. A breakdown of the above EHCP numbers by school type shows that placements with independent special schools have increased from c. 22k in AY23 to c. 26k in AY24, whilst remaining as c. 6% of all EHCP placements. Whilst this demonstrates that independent providers continue to play a vital role in the provision of education for young people with an EHCP, it’s worth noting that they may face increasing challenges in the form of LAs looking to limit costs and therefore not use independent provision or push back hard against fee increases. With this in mind, it will be interesting to monitor how the abovementioned 6% share develops going forward.
The DfE does not provide data on the primary needs of pupils with EHCPs being catered for in the independent sector. However, a breakdown by primary need of those EHCP pupils at state schools suggests that the growth discussed above has been driven by the 3 most common need types: Social, Emotional and Mental Health (SEMH), Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), and Speech, Language and Communication Needs (SLCN). A review of the largest providers in the sector shows that these are the need areas on which their independent special schools most commonly focus.
In their review of the sector the Conservative government identified late intervention as a key issue facing the sector, however there is, as of yet, no evidence that action has been taken to address the issue, with the age breakdown of pupils with EHCPs in state-maintained schools in England remaining largely unchanged from AY23 to AY24.
What has Labour said with regards to SEND?
Labour’s election manifesto said relatively little that was explicitly about the SEND sector, suggesting that changes to the status quo in this area are not high on the new government’s agenda. In the absence of a clear stance, we can focus only on the few sentences that were dedicated to SEND.
Labour have said that they “will take a community-wide approach, improving inclusivity and expertise in mainstream schools, as well as ensuring special schools cater to those with the most complex needs.” Assuming that the latter part of this sentence – “ensuring special schools cater to those with the most complex needs” – is referring to state-maintained special schools, this would mark a significant shift away from the current state of affairs. There is no metric in the DfE data measuring the relative complexity of needs catered for by any given school, however proxies are available. Often the most complex needs are catered for in the smallest settings and an analysis of school size thus demonstrates that the most complex needs are, in general, catered for by the independent sector, rather than in state-maintained schools. In AY24, the average enrolment of an independent special school was 38 students, whereas state-maintained special schools had an average of 150 pupils each. It would therefore likely require a significant shift in the current structure of the sector to reach a point where state-maintained special schools are catering to those with the most complex needs.
Another snippet from the manifesto says that the Labour government will “make sure admissions decisions account for the needs of communities and require all schools to cooperate with local authorities on school admissions, SEND inclusion, and place planning”. This emphasis on local authorities could mean that the new government is unlikely to pursue the Conservative’s goal, as laid out in their SEND review, of creating a higher level of standardisation across the country within the SEND sector. This would be in-keeping with Labour’s wider approach as, whilst they are not looking to reverse academisation, they have said that LA-maintained schools will not be forced to become academies, thus protecting the role of local authorities in the school system.
The manner in which Labour’s ascent to power will likely impact the SEND sector the most will be through their flagship policy of removing VAT exemption on school fees. As things stand, Labour have said there will be VAT exemption for pupils with an EHCP that says placement at an independent school is necessary and therefore whose fees are paid by their LA. There are, however, a huge number of pupils with SEND but either without an EHCP or with an EHCP but without the recommendation for independent provision whose families have chosen an independent education due to the extra support they believe it can provide with their diagnosed needs. If there is no change to Labour’s stance, the choices made by these families when the changes to VAT rules are introduced in January 2025 may significantly alter the shape of the sector, perhaps with many dropping out of the independent sector or with more families looking to obtain EHCPs for their children that include a recommendation for independent provision.
Our SEND practice is led by Arun Kanwar (Partner), and Rob Dancey (Manager), authors of this article.
If you would like to discuss the content of this article further or learn more about our work, contact the authors directly or at [email protected].
